tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4787923283560259129.post2257150328509248409..comments2024-03-18T14:57:52.489-04:00Comments on The Skeptical Statistician: On the Volatility of Distal Prediction or: Why I Get Speeding TicketsUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4787923283560259129.post-87924617830852354782012-10-18T13:20:44.934-04:002012-10-18T13:20:44.934-04:00I'm glad I'm not the only one that kills t...I'm glad I'm not the only one that kills time with these type of math games.<br /><br />I think your comments taken together (Aaron & Ed) are actually pretty interesting. My take on things is that GPS usually overestimates, though I do agree with Aaron that some of the methods (e.g. Google) have become incredibly sophisticated. If traffic is involved (i.e. Google can predict your max speed), I'm not shocked that they should produce much better estimates.<br /><br />That means that the estimates are probably considerably better in a city, where you're more likely to run up against traffic. The trip Ed is talking about (correct me if I'm wrong), involves significantly less city driving. Because no traffic means that a max speed can't be estimated, the GPS unit would have to do a lot more work (i.e. on-the-fly learning) to predict the speed it thinks you should be going the rest of the way.<br /><br />That logic would suggest that Google's predictions should be more accurate for a trip in a city than one between cities, time or distance of trip held constant. That would be fun to test.<br /><br />HIRE ME AT GOOGLE, GOOGLE.<br /><br />Anyway, the fact that we can find some situations where GPS does really well, but other situations where it doesn't leaves us with the machine-based confusion and trust issues that Ed is describing. You think you should be right in your own estimates (you probably are), but a computer that should be (and can be!) better at this makes you second guess yourself. PChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08117994254588618600noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4787923283560259129.post-35199610628835743002012-10-17T16:40:44.436-04:002012-10-17T16:40:44.436-04:00Totally hate how GPS has robbed my math games (I d...Totally hate how GPS has robbed my math games (I do them too). I used to call my dad on the way home and give him really precise estimates: "I'll be there at 2:34pm". I got to the point where I was usually within a minute. Now I have the stupid phone (or gps) there telling me something different and I don't know what to believe.Edhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14119987576654193079noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4787923283560259129.post-44869269926797086222012-10-17T12:17:43.556-04:002012-10-17T12:17:43.556-04:00Just gotta say - Google Maps does some amazing pre...Just gotta say - Google Maps does some amazing prediction with all the traffic out here. I'm not sure what Google uses for their speed estimates (real time data from GPS-enabled devices using the maps app?) but even if there's deadlocked traffic due to a rush to get to the pumpkin patch, it's pretty much spot on with arrival time. Aaronhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07040172994276243766noreply@blogger.com